The XM原油minutes indicate that market expectations, as implied by the Public Market Research Department's survey, have increased during the intermeeting period. Respondents generally believe that a policy rate cut will occur later than previously assessed and is broadly consistent with the implied path until early 2026. However, subsequent to this, the survey-based path is notably lower than the market's implied path, potentially reflecting positive market risk premiums and survey biases. The Federal Reserve remains committed to waiting for further improvements in inflation before considering further rate cuts.

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